2.1 Population data

Current population estimates and projections were obtained from the Central Statistics Office (CSO) Ireland (CSO, 2008). The CSO (2008) projected the ROI population to the year 2041 based on 2006 national census data.
CSO projection scenarios are based on two fertility variants and three migration variants:

• High fertility variant (F1): the total fertility rate (TFR) to remain at its 2006 level of 1.9 for the lifetime of the projections.
• Low fertility variant (F2): the TFR to decrease to 1.65 by 2016 and to remain constant thereafter.
• Low migration variant (M0): based on zero net migration.
• High migration variant (M1): based on immigration continuing at recently-observed high levels and then moderating.
• Mid migration variant (M2): based on immigration continuing at more moderate levels.

The latest CSO publication (CSO, 2010a) noted that in the twelve months to April 2010, the natural increase in the population remained strong while negative net migration was recorded due to the high net outward migration. If the trend of high emigration continues, the ROI may be left with a relatively elderly population. Given this information, the M2F1 scenario projections were selected for this study, based on expected moderate future immigration, continuing high emigration, and continuing high fertility. From the six possible projection scenarios, the M2F1 scenario represented one of the two mid-estimate scenarios (with M2F2 producing slightly lower population estimates).
Population projections for the M2F1 scenario for the years 2010, 2015 and 2020 are presented in Table 2.1. Please refer to the audio files to listen to the table or to the PDF to view the table.